QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF 3000KL HIGH SPEED DIESEL (HSD) STORAGE TANK SITE FABRICATION AND ERECTION PROJECT USING PRIMAVERA RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE
In this paper, sixty-nine risks associated with 3000 KL High Speed Diesel (HSD) storage tank site fabrication and erection project, Pune, Maharashtra, India has been identified and classified in eight categories. After identifying and prioritizing risks associated with project, quantitative risk analysis has been carried out with the help of Monte Carlo’s simulation by using Primavera Risk Analysis software. Research has been done by considering three cases i.e. original plan, pre-mitigated condition and post-mitigated condition. In original plan, schedule and cost uncertainties are associated with project schedule and cost. In pre-mitigated condition, all risks identified in project are associated with project schedule and cost without considering risk responses and mitigations. In post-mitigated condition after mitigation results are found. After comparing 80% probabilistic results obtained from all three conditions it has been found that, contingency reserves required for schedule of the project is reduced by 50% and for cost reserves are reduced by 76.95%.
Keywords: Quantitative Risk Analysis, Risk Management, High Speed Diesel (HSD), Project Management Life Cycle, Risk Register, Risk Scoring, Probability- Impact Technique, Monte Carlo Simulation, Primavera Risk Analysis